A coalition that helped elect him is now split down the middle. Donald Trump‘s approval rating among working-class voters has shifted sharply since early 2026, according to multiple independent polls. The numbers vary depending on how pollsters define “working class,” but the overall direction is consistent. Here’s what the data actually shows.
How “Working Class” Gets Defined in Polling
Pollsters don’t agree on one definition. CNN’s polling defines working class as anyone making $50,000 or less a year. Other surveys, including CNN’s own white working-class tracking, define the group as white voters without a college degree. Analysts note the working-class population isn’t a monolith, and different pollsters draw different lines around the bloc, which is worth keeping in mind when comparing numbers across sources. aol + 2
The Income-Based Numbers
The sharpest decline shows up among lower-income respondents. A CNN/SSRS poll from January 9-12, 2026 found 38% approval and 60% disapproval among adults earning under $50,000, a net rating of minus 22 points. By the March 26-30, 2026 CNN/SSRS poll, approval among this group had fallen to 29%, with disapproval rising to 70%, pushing the net rating to minus 41. That’s a 19-point net swing in roughly 10 weeks, driven by both falling approval and rising disapproval. Yahoo Sports + 2
CNN analyst Harry Enten noted Trump carried these voters by 2 points over Kamala Harris in 2024, but an average from several sources now shows a 24-point net disapproval among the same group. aol
The White Non-College Numbers
Trump’s standing with white working-class voters, historically a core part of his coalition, has moved in similar fashion, though the trend has been less linear.
- October 2025 52% approval, 47% disapproval, a net positive of 5 points. globalnews
- January 2026 Same 52-47 split held steady. globalnews
- February 2026 Approval rose to 54%, disapproval at 46%, a net positive of 8 points. globalnews
- March 2026 Approval dropped to 49%, disapproval rose to 50%, flipping to a net negative of 1 point for the first time in his second term. globalnews
Cook Political Report’s tracker of white, non-college voters showed Trump’s net approval falling from 13 points a year earlier to just 3.5 points by late February 2026. The New Republic
Polling Trend Over Time
| Poll Source | Date | Group | Net Approval |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS | Oct 2025 | White non-college | +5 |
| CNN/SSRS | Jan 2026 | White non-college | +5 |
| CNN/SSRS | Feb 2026 | White non-college | +8 |
| CNN/SSRS | Mar 2026 | White non-college | -1 |
| CNN/SSRS | Jan 2026 | Under $50K income | -22 |
| CNN/SSRS | Mar 2026 | Under $50K income | -41 |
| UMass Amherst | Mar 2026 | All voters (incl. working class) | Approval at 33% |
What’s Driving the Shift
Several overlapping factors show up across the coverage. The White House has faced fallout from the Iran war, economic pressure on low-income households, and a tightening political environment ahead of the midterms. A UMass Amherst poll conducted March 20-25, 2026 found Trump’s overall approval at 33%, the lowest of his second term, amid deepening disapproval over his handling of inflation, immigration, jobs, and tariffs. That same poll found majorities across nearly every demographic group, including working class, middle class, and wealthy respondents, expressing opposition to his presidency. globalnews + 2
On the ground, the picture is more mixed than the topline numbers suggest. Washington Post reporting from Willowick, Ohio found some white working-class voters still expressing confidence Trump would turn the economy around, even as broader gas price concerns weighed on local sentiment. Sky Sports
How the White House Has Responded
The administration has pushed back on the polling narrative. White House spokesperson Davis Ingle told Newsweek that “the ultimate poll was November 5, 2024, when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda”, framing the election result as the more meaningful measure of public support. globalnews
What It Could Mean for the 2026 Midterms
Analysts note shifts among low-income voters could carry real consequences for Republican prospects in the November midterms. Despite the erosion in working-class support, the GOP still held a 6-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot as of late February 2026, according to DDHQ averages. Polling firm Cygnal separately flagged vulnerabilities for Republicans among core Trump base segments, particularly working-class and older men. Yahoo Sports + 2
FAQ
1. What is Trump’s current approval rating among working-class voters?
It depends on the definition. Among voters earning under $50,000, CNN/SSRS polling from March 2026 found 29% approval. Among white non-college voters, the same period showed 49% approval.
2. Has Trump’s approval rating with this group always been negative?
No. White non-college voters gave him net-positive approval through February 2026 before flipping negative in March.
3. Why do different polls show different numbers for “working class”?
Pollsters use different definitions some focus on income level (under $50,000), others on education and race (white voters without a college degree).
4. What’s driving the decline in approval?
Reporting points to economic pressure, inflation, tariffs, immigration policy, and fallout from the Iran war as contributing factors.
5. Does the White House dispute these polling numbers?
The White House has pointed to the 2024 election results rather than disputing the polling methodology directly.
6. Could this affect the 2026 midterms?
Analysts say it could, though Republicans still held a narrow lead on the generic congressional ballot as of late February 2026.
Final Thoughts
The data on Trump’s approval rating among working-class voters tells a consistent story: support that helped power his 2024 win has softened, and in some measures, flipped negative. Whether that holds through the midterms will depend on how the economy and several ongoing policy fights play out over the rest of 2026.
