Four Years In And No End in Sight

As Russia prepares to mark the 81st anniversary of the Soviet Union’s defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II today, the war it launched against Ukraine more than four years ago grinds on with no ceasefire, no peace talks, and no mercy. This week has been one of the most turbulent and symbolic of the entire conflict — a week of broken promises, record drone swarms, dying civilians, and a Victory Day parade that has become, for the first time in nearly two decades, a parade of fear rather than power.

This year, Russia’s Victory Day celebrations have been scaled back in part due to Ukraine’s increased long-range strike capabilities. The Kremlin said it will not display military equipment at this year’s event, marking a notable shift for an event where military hardware is ordinarily put on full display.

PART I THE DUELLING CEASEFIRES THAT NEITHER SIDE KEPT

Russia’s Parade Ceasefire A Political Stunt, Ukraine Says

The week began with duelling unilateral ceasefire declarations from both Kyiv and Moscow a diplomatic theatre that produced almost no reduction in violence and exposed deep mutual distrust.

Russian authorities declared a unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine for Friday and Saturday, to coincide with Victory Day. Ukraine responded with its own suspension of hostilities from midnight Tuesday. But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow disregarded the goodwill gesture and launched fresh attacks. “Russia has not stopped any type of its military activity. Unfortunately, it has not stopped. Ukraine will act symmetrically,” Zelenskyy said in his regular evening video address Wednesday.

Zelenskyy was scathing about Russia’s motivations. “They want Ukraine’s permission to hold their parade so they can safely take to the square for an hour once a year, and then go back to killing our people and waging war,” the Ukrainian leader said Thursday.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha wrote: “This shows that Russia rejects peace and its fake calls for a ceasefire on May 9th have nothing to do with diplomacy. Putin only cares about military parades, not human lives.” Sybiha called on Ukraine’s partners to increase pressure on Moscow “including new rounds of sanctions, isolation, accountability for Russian crimes and enhanced support for Ukraine in all areas.”

Ukraine’s Ceasefire Violated Within Hours

Ukraine said on Wednesday that Russia had violated the unilateral ceasefire called by Kyiv by launching a barrage of air strikes on Ukrainian cities with 108 combat drones and three missiles within hours of the ceasefire taking effect at midnight.

Ukraine’s air force had issued several warnings of drone and guided aerial bomb launches after midnight. It said Russia had launched two ballistic missiles, one cruise missile, and 108 drones at the country since 6pm local time.

Zelenskyy later said Russia violated the Ukrainian-proposed ceasefire 1,820 times by the morning of May 6, only hours after it took effect.

PART II THE WEEK’S BLOODIEST ATTACKS

Zaporizhzhia, Kramatorsk, and Sumy Cities Under Fire

This week brought some of the most devastating civilian strikes of the past several months.

Ukrainian officials reported that overnight and daytime attacks on May 5 and into May 6 involved dozens of drones and multiple ballistic missiles, striking residential areas, infrastructure, and cities including Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, Kramatorsk, and Chernihiv. At least 22 to 27 people were killed and more than 80 to 120 others wounded. In Zaporizhzhia alone, a single strike killed at least 12 civilians.

Zelenskyy described the Zaporizhzhia attack which killed 12 people as having “absolutely no military justification.” Russian strikes also hit the centre of Kramatorsk, the last hub under Kyiv’s control in the embattled Donetsk region, killing six people.

On Wednesday, two Russian drones hit a kindergarten in the downtown area of Sumy city in northeastern Ukraine, killing a security guard and wounding two others. No children were there at the time.

On Tuesday alone, Russian drone and missile strikes on Ukraine killed 27 people and wounded 120 others — all of them civilians, according to Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko. Russian attacks since last Friday have killed at least 70 civilians and wounded more than 500, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said Wednesday, as the strikes hit 14 regions.

In the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest, a drone strike wounded nine people, including three children.

In the republic of Chuvashia, a Ukrainian drone attack on the regional capital Cheboksary killed two people, injured 37, and displaced more than 1,000. Events were also cancelled in annexed Crimea, where a drone strike killed five people on Wednesday.

PART III THE DRONE WAR INTENSIFIES ON BOTH SIDES

Ukraine’s Second-Biggest Drone Attack of the War

Ukraine’s response to Russia’s continued strikes was historic in scale.

Russian air defences shot down 347 Ukrainian drones overnight Thursday, Russia’s Defence Ministry said in what appeared to be a major attack after Moscow spurned Kyiv’s ceasefire earlier in the week. Incoming drones were destroyed over 20 Russian regions, including Moscow, in Ukraine’s second-biggest aerial attack since Russia’s full-scale invasion more than four years ago. The largest was last March when Ukraine launched 389 drones.

Moscow Under Direct Fire Days Before the Parade

A Ukrainian drone struck a residential building in Moscow, reportedly the Mosfilm Tower, just kilometres away from the Kremlin — one of the deepest strikes into central Moscow on record. Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin confirmed the attack, claiming no casualties had been sustained.

A Ukrainian drone apparently a Fire Point FP-1 threaded past the radars, missiles, and guns defending Moscow and struck a residential building in the city’s wealthy Mosfilm neighbourhood, just 6 km from the Kremlin. According to Mark Krutov, who scrutinises satellite imagery for Radio Free Europe, the strike was “quite routine” a signal of how regularly Ukrainian drones are now reaching deep into Russian territory.

The Night of May 8 Moscow Targeted Again

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin claimed that Ukraine’s military launched dozens of drones towards the Russian capital throughout the night of May 8, just one day before Moscow’s annual Victory Day military parade. Sobyanin reported the first three downed drones approaching Moscow just after midnight, with a total of 26 downed throughout the night. Temporary flight restrictions were introduced at Moscow’s Vnukovo and Domodedovo airports. No information was immediately available as to whether any damage was sustained.

PART IV RUSSIA’S VICTORY DAY: A PARADE WITHOUT TANKS

History’s Most Subdued Victory Day

Under President Vladimir Putin, Victory Day has become a flagship event in the annual Russian calendar, with thousands of military personnel and dozens of military vehicles parading through Red Square. But this year’s events are set to be their most subdued in years, with relentless Ukrainian drone attacks across the country and a widening digital crackdown reshaping one of Russia’s most important public holidays. The military parade on Moscow’s Red Square will be held without military vehicles for the first time in nearly 20 years a dramatic break with the Putin-era tradition of using the event to flex Russia’s military might.

In Russia’s regions, most leaders have followed Moscow in scaling back customary local military parades and forgoing military equipment displays, including World War II-era hardware. As many as 11 regions in eastern and central Russia have called off public celebrations entirely, citing security concerns.

A Kremlin in Lockdown

All mobile internet access and text messaging services will be shut down in the Russian capital on May 9, state media reported, citing the country’s Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media.

According to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, preparations for the parade are taking place “in a mode more similar to a military lockdown than a celebration,” with communication blackouts across Moscow. Russian Telegram channels say hundreds of air defence systems have been transferred to the Russian capital.

Mobile internet outages have already begun in several regions, including Moscow, and are expected to affect at least 21 regions during the celebrations. The restrictions are likely to prevent access to online services, including via VPNs, while mobile operators warned that even government-approved platforms may face disruptions until May 10

Putin’s Lonely Podium

The viewing stand from which Putin traditionally oversees the parade will lack the prestige of last year’s event, with just three world leaders expected to attend. While most heads of former Soviet states traditionally join Putin in the stands, Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko was the only one to confirm attendance this year. Laos President Thongloun Sisoulith and Malaysian King Sultan Ibrahim will also be present, as well as the Moscow-backed heads of Georgia’s breakaway regions.

The absence of most world leaders from the podium is itself a statement a visible measure of how far Russia has been isolated since February 2022.

Slovak PM Fico The EU’s Awkward Guest

One notable exception to the Western boycott of Moscow’s festivities is Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose attendance in Red Square is expected to ignite fierce debate in Brussels. As an EU member state leader appearing alongside Putin while Russia bombards Ukrainian cities, Fico’s presence challenges the European Union’s unity at one of its most sensitive moments.

⚔️ PART V — THE FRONT LINES AND THE HUMAN COST

Attrition Without End

Ukrainian missiles and drones have been striking more than 60 major targets inside Russia every month for several months. Meanwhile on the Ukrainian side, Russian attacks with drones, missiles, artillery shelling, and glide bombs continue to hit civilian areas, including the power grid and rail network.

The parade will include a foot column of servicemen from military educational institutions representing various branches of Russia’s armed forces a reminder that for all the pageantry, the Russian military is deeply committed on the eastern front.

Ukrainian energy expert Oleksandr Kharchenko estimated that restoring Ukraine’s full electrical and heating capacity would require years. “In the best-case scenario, we will be able to restore maybe 30 or 40% of electrical capacity before next winter,” he warned.

There is no sign that the four-year war is close to being resolved at the negotiating table. US-led diplomatic efforts to stop the war over the past year have come to nothing.

PART VI THE DIPLOMATIC DEAD END

Washington’s Attention Is Elsewhere

The single greatest diplomatic obstacle to any Ukraine peace settlement right now may be geography or rather, Washington’s attention. With the US consumed by the Iran war, the Trump–Xi Beijing summit, and domestic political turbulence, Ukraine has fallen off the top of America’s priority list.

Zelenskyy warned foreign officials against attending Russia’s Victory Day parade, while Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said Moscow had advised foreign missions accredited in Russia to withdraw personnel from Kyiv because of what she described as an “inevitable retaliatory strike” by Russian forces.

The Moscow proposal for a Victory Day ceasefire was communicated only to the US administration as Russian officials are still refusing any direct contact with Kyiv.

Public opinion on both sides is shifting toward exhaustion. Polling shows 64% of Russians now support peace negotiations, while 61% of Ukrainians support territorial compromises in order to end the war — a remarkable shift after four years of full-scale conflict. But the politicians on neither side have yet found a path to turning that public sentiment into a negotiated reality.